How third-party candidates can make a difference in swing states

Third-party candidates will be on the ballot in every major state, prompting increased scrutiny of how they could influence the outcome of the presidential election in two weeks.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump are statistically tied in many of these swing states, meaning a shift of one or two percentage points to the other candidate could change the outcome of the White House race.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein is now the best-known third party candidate, but others, including independent Cornel West and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, are also still running. Meanwhile, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has since withdrawn his candidacy and endorsed Trump, will still appear on several key ballots.

Here’s where third-party candidates stand in critical swing states:

Arizona

Election analysts expect Arizona to be called earlier this November than last cycle, but having two outsiders on the ticket in Stein and Oliver means the results could still be sloppy.

Stein is leading among Muslim American voters in the Grand Canyon State, while Oliver’s presence in the race is driving down turnout for both Trump and Harris, according to the latest New York Times-Siena College poll.

Georgia

Trump’s lead in Georgia—8 points according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ average—has excited Democrats, who see long-term success on the horizon beyond 2020. But Georgia’s blue bias is less obvious this cycle. Early in-person voting began a surge last week, with more than a million voters casting ballots.

Election advocates don’t expect Stein, whose name will appear on the ballot, to play as big a role in Georgia as she might in places like Wisconsin or Michigan, where she won support eight years ago. But any outside candidate, including Oliver, who is from neighboring Tennessee and ran in a special election for Georgia’s 5th Congressional District in 2020, could still tempt voters to cast protest ballots.

Michigan

For the casual curiosity, Kennedy and Stein are a powerhouse duo at Michigan. This is one of the places where Stein won enough voters from Hillary Clinton to help Trump in the first presidential race, and where Democrats are determined to contain her.

Democrats believe any support for Stein in the Great Lakes state would distract from Harris, who is fighting separately with the state’s Arab American population, which has defected in part due to the Biden administration’s response to the Gaza war. Stein has the support of an American Muslim group called Leave Harris.

Harris’ allies argue that even a few thousand votes for the anti-war Stein – or perhaps for Kennedy, who supported Trump but whose name remains on the ballot – could turn the country back to Trump. The Democratic National Committee has invested in outreach in Detroit and Saginaw, reminding voters that in 2016, “Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes in 2016—Jill Stein received 51,463 votes.”

Nevada

Oliver is the least known contender among the outsiders. He typically polls around 1 percent of the vote nationally, with little confidence and much debate about whether he will outperform the Democratic or Republican candidate.

Libertarians tend to be closer to Republicans, but many have expressed distaste for Trump and predictably disapprove of Harris, making Oliver a potential game-changing candidate.

He is the only third-party candidate in the Silver State and can influence a relatively small population. Stein failed to get on the ballot there, and Kennedy managed to remove his name.

North Carolina

If there’s one place where West, a leftist and former surrogate for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), could make a push, it’s the Tar Heel State. West sued the North Carolina State Board of Elections to get his name on the ballot and built a small following of progressive and working-class voters of all racial and age groups.

A North Carolina GOTV organizer told The Hill they haven’t seen much third-party interest among voters, but West’s insistence on competing as the Justice for All candidate has been welcomed by a fringe group that believes more choice important for democracy.

Pennsylvania

The Keystone State is the most closely watched battleground, with Harris and Trump spending money in large, vibrant districts to win 19 electoral votes.

Democrats are pleased with the vice president’s new two-point lead, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll released Monday, but they recognize it is a volatile race. Of course, Trump led by 1 point in another poll conducted earlier this month by Emerson College.

Harris has spent $500 million on advertising in the state and landed there 20 times, including with former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyoming), according to multiple reports. Trump made a splash by appearing at McDonald’s and also invested heavily there.

Proximity means more attention to third-party candidates. Stein and Oliver hope to appeal to disaffected voters and together gain between 1 and 3 percent of the vote in aggregate polls, which experts say is enough to skew the results.

Wisconsin

Stine, Kennedy, Oliver and West will appear on the ballot in Wisconsin, offering perhaps the biggest wild card of the seven consecutive battlegrounds.

The challengers won various lawsuits against the Democratic National Committee to get on the Badger State ballot, and the Wisconsin Elections Commission certified their bids as legitimate.

National Democrats are focused on Stein, again recalling Clinton’s 1% loss there in 2016. But Kennedy, who infuriated them throughout the presidential contest, could still steal votes from either party even after ordering his supporters to support Trump.

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