Russia’s crude oil exports hit four-month high

Russia’s crude oil exports by sea continue to rise as heavy maintenance at domestic refineries leaves more oil available for export.

Russia exported an average of 3.47 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in the four weeks to Oct. 20, 140,000 bpd more than the average in the four weeks to Oct. 13, tanker tracking data tracked by by Bloomberg on Tuesday.

The average for the four weeks to Oct. 20 was the highest level of exports for Russia since late June, according to Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.

At the same time, according to Bloomberg estimates, refining rates at Russian oil refineries will drop to the lowest level in more than two years, from May 2022.

The increase in oil supplies from Russia is due to an increase in the volume of oil heading to Asia, a region that now consumes almost all, 95%, of Russian oil. Shipments to Asia rose to their highest level in more than five months, according to Bloomberg.

Boosted by higher export volumes, the gross value of observed crude oil shipments from Russia increased to $1.59 billion per week in the four weeks to October 20, up from $1.52 billion per week in the previous four-week period. This was the highest weekly gross average since mid-August.

Russia has increased the amount of oil refining capacity it expects to be idled this month by 67% from previous plans due to scheduled maintenance at major refineries, Reuters estimates showed earlier this month.

Russia plans to have 4.0 million tons of offline refining capacity in October, according to Reuters calculations based on figures provided by industry sources. While this is less than September’s idled capacity of 4.5 million tonnes, it is still higher than previously planned.

Previously deferred maintenance at Rosneft’s Novokuybyshevsk refinery in southwest Russia and maintenance at Lukoil’s NORSI refinery unit have now increased capacity that will be shut down in October, leaving more oil for export.

Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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