Signs of drier weather for the rest of the month, but also risk of fog

Large parts of England and Wales have had a fairly wet October so far, with many places already exceeding the expected average monthly rainfall by mid-month. Shoebury in Shropshire received 143% of its October average rainfall this month, while southern Shobdon and Hereford in Hereforshire received 135% of its October average rainfall. Parts of the south Midlands and central southern England also have infection rates above 100%. Non-tidal flood warnings remain in place along the River Severn in Gloucestershire and Worcestershire, as well as several flood warnings for the Upper Thames and its tributaries.

Data provided Weather in Skvorets

However, after the wettest September in the south of England since 1918 and a wet October for parts of England and Wales, are there any signs of drier weather on the horizon?

High pressure will occasionally try to move across the UK in the last third of the month, leading to some dry days, but there will be a surge later in the week when low pressure moves in temporarily, meaning there will be a few days of plenty of rain or showers . But increasing high pressure next week could provide a longer respite from the wet weather of the last few weeks, especially in the south.

The stronger impact of high pressure for the remainder of the month is shown in the GEFS mslp anomaly below, although there will be a temporary burst of lower pressure later in the week.

An area of ​​high pressure sliding northeast from the Azores across Western Europe will likely bring drier and more settled conditions for most Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in the east. Also, thanks to southern winds, it will be warmer than average for this time of year: in the south the temperature will reach 17°C. But on Thursday, the high will retreat east, allowing a trough of low pressure to move in from the west, and weather fronts will move in through the west, bringing rain here in the afternoon and to all parts in the evening and overnight. Flashes of rain or showers could continue across parts of England and Wales on Friday and into Saturday morning as an area of ​​low pressure becomes slow moving. More clouds and rain could arrive from the Atlantic later on Sunday, but in between there should be drier weather with sunny spells.

The rest of this month is drier than average for many countries.

There are signs that next week’s high pressure may make a more concerted effort to gain a foothold and stick around a little longer than it did this week, bringing dry and persistent weather. In fact, based on current model results and aggregate means, the south could remain dry for much of next week. This will be ideal for Halloween celebrations on Thursday, although in 10 days it may well change and look more alarming by then.

Possible fog this evening

But, as is often the case with high pressure at this time of year, with little or no wind, falling temperatures and a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, there will be a risk of fog forming. There is a risk of fog across the Midlands, East Anglia and parts of southern England in particular this evening. So in these areas, it may be worth giving yourself extra time and leaving earlier if you have a longer trip ahead. There will be much less risk of fog for the rest of the week as strong winds return to prevent fog from forming. But it could well return next week when high pressure sets in, bringing calm weather at night.